Traversing The Portfolio Theory

 It’s definitely diversity but not a hodgepodge that helps you sail through all the unforeseen tempests.

Diversification across various classes of stocks based on industries, size, value vs. growth etc. within a portfolio helps an investor to minimize risks through summing up different risk behaviours of different stocks while keeping contribution of their respective return unaffected. So an investor has a freedom to construct his portfolio in a manner that risk is minimized and return is maximized.

So early as in 1952 Harry Markowitz changed the whole mindset of all investors who used to measure their success by the performance of each of their stocks separately.  He made it clear that one should not concern if some of the stocks did not show up well over a period of time subject to that it is compensated by the rewards of others. In brief, it is not the individual stock but the whole bunch of different stocks called portfolio that should be under purview.

Markowitz showed in MPT (Modern Portfolio Theory) how an investor can reduce the standard deviation of portfolio return by choosing stocks that do not move exactly together.    

Now, if we draw a graph with Risk (standard deviation of security/portfolio) on X-axis and Return  on Y-axis the efficient portfolio of given stocks would be that which lies upper and left as much as possible.  

See the graph.          

It is really a matter of choice which one of the efficient portfolios is best suited to you depending upon the level of your desire of return and aversion to risk. If you love to play with security market ups and down you are most likely to pick up the portfolio which is expected to go uppermost point with least regard to its dangerous shift towards right direction. Though most of the people like you and me are very conscious about uncertainties in the market and try to minimize risk and stay left considerably. In any case, there is perfectly no point choosing a portfolio given on the graph which lies lower than O as there is always a better return available on the given risk level as the graph shows. 

Expected Portfolio Return is just the weighted average of the Expected Returns of the stocks present in it but Risk (Standard Deviation) has to be calculated by a formula given below.

First we will see how variance is calculated in respect of a portfolio consisting of only two stocks (for the sake of simplicity) and then as we all know that the square root of that will be the standard deviation.

Portfolio Variance =  X₁²σ₁²  +  X₂²σ₂²  + 2 X₁X₂ ρ₁₂σ₁σ₂    

where x1 and, x2  are proportions of stock no.1 and 2, σ_1, σ₂  are  their standard deviations and  ρ₁₂ is the co-variance between them.

 

It is to be noted that  The desired portfolio should be only one that lies upper than the critical point ‘O’ and necessarily on the line drawn on the graph which is in fact the maximum return possible on a given level of risk.  

The another important point is that we can achieve any level of return represented by any point on the curve and even more than that by adding the acts of lending or borrowing money at government treasury bill rates that is termed as risk-free investment. And so our investment in part can both be positive or negative depending upon whether we choose to buy a quantity of treasury bill, lend money at treasury bill rate or sell t-bills / borrow money at the same rate. If we lend money or buy treasury bills then our investment in that part is positive and if we sell treasury bills or borrow money at treasury bill rate then our investment in that part is negative and the risk is zero in both of such cases.

The government treasury bills give less interest than the security market but it is almost risk-free and suppose if we expect our present portfolio will give a return of 20% and treasury bills is giving just  10% then some of us may like to take more risk that is associated with security investment. They may think sometimes to sell the treasury bills under their possession for buying more stocks from the market. Though it is always advisable to keep a good mix of treasury bills and stocks all the while.

Suppose portfolio P consisting of a different number of shares of selected stocks is predicted (based on past data) to have an expected return of 20% and a standard deviation of 18%. We have planned to mix some quantity of treasury bills that give an interest of suppose  10% p.a. on zero risk (s.d.).

Now, if we put half of our investment in market securities as in the portfolio mentioned above and half in the treasury bills then 

Return (r) = 1/2 x expected return on P + 1/2 x interest rate  = 15%

Variance = Standard Deviation² = (σ²) =  X₁²σ₁²  +  X₂²σ₂²  + 2x₁x₂  ρ₁₂ σ₁ σ₂  

                                                                  σ  =  X₁σ₁ (since  σ_{2 = 0)}

                                                                        = (.5) 18% =  9% 

Now, suppose we borrow money equal to our initial investment at the rate of treasury bill (or sell tresury bills in our possession to such an extent) and invest that amount in our portfolio. Then,

Expected Return, r = 2 x 20% - 1 x 10% = 30%

And, Standard Deviation, σ  =  X₁σ₁ (since  σ_{2 = 0)}

                                                          = 2 x 18% = 36%

So, if we assume that there is an option   for everyone to lend and borrow to any limit on the rate of treasury bills then the range of investment possibilities can be maximised to a further extent.

In the above graph please see the straight line. Below point M is the case of risk free lending while above M is the case of risk free borrowing. We can see that rightmost curves represent different portfolios of certain combinations of stocks. When they are combined together then we find the curve situated in middle and when we go further by introducing the treasury bills (buy/sell) or lending and borrowing, we find a straight line. The efficient portfolio at the tangent point M is better than all the others. It offers the highest ratio (Sharpe Ratio) of risk premium to standard deviation.

Sharpe Ratio = Risk Premium / Standard Deviation  =  r - rf  /  σ 

William Sharpe, John Lintner alnd Jack Treynor took this discussion to a more simplistic level in mid-60s. in the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) they said that 

"Expected Risk Premium varies in direct proportion to beta"        

                          r - rf   = b (rm - rf)

where, Risk Premium (r - rf)  is the difference between the investment's expected return and the risk -free rate

and beta is a measure of a stock's volatility in relation to the overall market. 

Now, before we conclude we must take a glance over the important alternative theories propounded in this regard. 

Stephen Ross's Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is altogether on a different footing. It says that each stock's return depends partly on pervasive macroeconomic influences or 'factors' and partly on 'noise' events that are unique to that company. And so,

Return (r) = a + b1 (r factor1) + b2 (rfactor2) b3 (rfactor3) + ......... + noise 

and, Risk Premium (r - rf) =  b1 (r factor1- rf) + b2 (rfactor2- rf) b3 (rfactor3- rf) + .........

Making a more categorical statement Fama and French gave a Three-Factor Model.

r - rf =  bmarket (r market factor) + bsize (rsize factor) bbook to market (rbook -to -market factor) .

                                                                

In a nutshell it can be said that diversification of stocks in security investment helps tremendously in minimising risks though it is still to be found out as what are the actual base of ideology behind that. Though we must be cautious and logical while making investment in security market but there is no reason to hesitate as since 1978-79, the market risk premium (rm - rf) has averaged 9.81% a year in India.

(Author - Hemant K Das)

REIT Vs. Real Estate investment

 A quantitative analysis is the need of the hour

 

Average daily dollar trading volume of REIT according to a reit(dot)com was $7.2 billion in April 2017, up from $3.7 billion in April 2012 and $2.9 billion in April 2007. Why people in India have taken almost half a century to find an appetite for REIT needs to be analysed. The phenomenon that was a buzz in US since 1960s came to India in 2007 when REIT was introduced by SEBI in India. We took so much of time in concluding that the lesser risk, more safeguards and enhanced liquidity are better than the opposite. To make a comparative study of investments in REIT and direct investment in similar real estate property basket and to come out with some quantitative model is the need of the hour.

Datastream, UBS estimates as on 22.6.2020

In the above Spider graph by Datastream, if all the legs in the graph are speeding out wide means that region is cheaper. Though three of the above graphs are of real estate performance one is particularly about REIT. And you can easily observe that the index of PCF (Price-Cash Flow) is significantly bigger in case of Hongkong's HK REIT than that of Properties.

Investment in REIT has typical edge over direct real estate investments. If a person buys or sell a house property he can’t purchase or sell it in tiny pieces commensurate to his real time requirement but it is possible through investment in REIT shares. You can buy or sell some of your shares whenever you want.  Also, bulk of dividends comes from rental income and not from Capital Gains so that one’s steady flow of income is assured.

India where SEBI (REITs) regulations came in 2014 is not alone in its experience of sluggish start. Even in US the first REIT was set up in as early as 1961 it took several decades for REITs to be accepted as an investment vehicle. Investor familiarity to the vehicle is the main issue behind it. REIT introduced in India by SEBI had to bear a lot of trouble getting off the ground. The country saw its first REIT – Embassy Office Park – in as late as in 2019 after nearly five years and five sets of amendments and multiple tax tweaks.

But if we should take any clue from the only REIT performance  it seems to be on a robust path now. In a Price movement graph published online for a period of 13 Feb’19 to 13 Dec’20 on Dalal Street Investment Journal we can observe that Embassy REIT has mostly stayed significantly upper than S&P BSE Realty index.

Interest income and rental income from property held directly by the trust, is not taxable in the hands of the REIT though Capital Gains would be taxed at the rate of 10% if the units have been held for more than 36 months, which is taxed at 15% in other cases

According to Forbes.com, In 33 years of past, REITs have returned more than 12% annually. This is in comparison to the roughly 10% return of the S&P 500 and the 6% - 8% return of private real estate funds during the same period.

(Author - Hemant K Das)

Investments - an analogy to household affairs / Shivam

The other day, while surfing the internet randomly, my eyes caught hold of a quote from Benjamin Graham, the mentor, and teacher of legendary investor, Warren Buffett. Graham says, "the investor's chief problem - and his worst enemy - is likely to be himself. In the end, how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave."  

His words gave me a feeling of clutching at the last straw while drowning. Let me explain. I have been getting several calls from a number of depositors/ investors asking for advice regarding their deposits/investments in a market that appears to have changed due to COVID 19. The callers were people from different professions— right from homemakers to civil servants, technocrats, businessmen, finance professionals, and even seasoned bankers. To my utter surprise, some of my callers were so-called financial advisors, whose very job happens to be advising common people about investments. Even more shocking was their confession that they are not able to muster enough courage to take calls of the investors they used to advise. These people were not laymen but were professionally qualified to offer financial advices and yet, just at the first blow of a crisis were dashed. Anyway that’s not the point I am going to make today. We shall come back to this some other day and here shall focus here on what an investor can do to safeguard their investments.

To reply to the queries mentioned in the preceding paragraph, I was was lookout for something which could be explained to and should be comprehensible to everybody notwithstanding his profession and knowledge level. And finally, I got Benjamin Graham's recipe, "how your investments behave is much less important than how you behave." It may be impracticable to understand minutely how investments behave but everyone can understand and to some extent control how they behave. And this is the issue of discussion today.

The very first thing to be understood is that "my money is my responsibility and that all kinds of sellers, be it bankers; brokers, IFAs or agents have a sense of greater allegiance to their own money and their own organisation. Let us know well the dichotomy between "owning money" and "owning responsibility for money". Understanding this difference, and owning the responsibility (for our money) is the FIRST step towards managing how we behave.

Now, let's ask a question to ourselves - why would a seller or advisor of financial products would toil up for us? The answer, of course, is to earn money. So, when we ask our advisors/ sellers to give us a cut from their commission, we become downright unfair. It makes us a bit like Shylock asking for a "pound of flesh". This might lead to the illegal practice of rebating and its natural outcome is indiscriminate selling and often mis-selling. And this selling or mis-selling is completely devoid of advising elements. If one wants the services of an advisor, one must be ready to pay the fee. The SECOND thing to do is to imbibe in our behaviour the concept/ principle of *'TINSTAAFL' (There is no such thing as a free lunch).* If anyone does provide free services, we must be skeptical and more so, if free service is sugar-coated in the form of freebies. Now, if your advisor has stopped taking your calls or has started avoiding you, it is time to forget him/ her and take charge of your money yourself.

Watching our own behaviour as well as that of our kith and kin can act as a wonderful guide to the 'investor' present in us. Try it! Give your kid something new to eat and watch his skeptic countenance supported with heavy shelling of queries that match exactly to all of those when someone approaches you with a new investment product. The kid sniffs and asks- what is this? Why not A, B or C or one of his favourites? Exactly in the same fashion, give a skeptical look to the seller of financial products and ask, "what's this? Why not those?"  Name a few products even if you don't know much about them and ask how the current product is better suited for you? This kidlike behaviour would be enough to differentiate between an amateur and a professional one. And you can get a sense as the advisor who  withstands your skepticism and inquisitive behaviour while also trying to provide answers to your questions is really a professional buff. This kidlike behaviour is the THIRD behavioral trait* for a successful investor.

Now, grow from kidhood and watch how a homemaker buys grocery items. Have a patience like her. In a vegetables mandi the first thing she does is to take a glance over the whole area consisting of approximately half a square kilometre to get an inkling of the general availability of items and their general price level. Then a suitable shop is chosen that susits to her taste and confidence level. Then starts the real deal. Each piece of potato, onion, tomato etcetera.. etcetera is inspected carefully from all sides, is pressed to measure its ripening stage; sniffed if required. If it passes through all the above quality testing, the bargain begins and the deal is struck at the most competitive price. Once back home, you can hear her say that she could have gotten a better deal, only if she had tried more shops or bargained more. Even after all these precautions if something appears to be inferior, she immediately rushes to exchange or return as the case may be. I often wonder if  Warren Buffett discovered the golden rule of investing while in a grocery shop with Mrs. Buffett, which he later paraphrased as "investors should evaluate stocks not as if they were buying perfume but as if they were buying vegetables". This explains the FOURTH behavioral trait of an investor—  hunt for a good bargain.

Demonetization unearthed a considerable amount of currency notes in denominations of ₹500 & ₹1000 from thither to unknown pockets of homemakers. Maintaining such an unknown pocket is the FIFTH behavioral trait of an investor. One should keep adequate provisions in liquid form for unforeseen events before allocating an amount for investment. Investing without ensuring adequate liquidity for any unforeseen need may put the investor in a precarious situation and subsequently lead to an abnormal loss.  Occasionally,  unplanned investments result in speculative but intoxicating gains that eventually lead to more loss than one could bear easily. Both, initial gain and initial loss in investment, flip our gambling instincts, and can destroy our financial well being. Be careful of both and don't get carried away by either of them. That's the 6th behavioral trait of an investor—practice restraint, especially in the face of initial loss or gain.

It is often said that investment is a long term affair but there is hardly any clarity over what is the ideal duration of the long term? I too have been trying to get an answer to this question. For quite some time, I have been groping around different finance and investment books to find the definition of 'long term' but couldn't find any except that the duology of 'long term' and 'short term' in the context of taxation. Finally, I was able to find some guidance in Warren Buffet's wisdom, whose favourite holding period is forever.  Warren's investment strategy reminds me of an incident from my childhood. Once, while coming back from mandi, my grandfather brought a mango sapling and asked me to come to the orchard. I happily followed him. Then started the process of sowing the sapling. As the chores moved  ahead so did my numerous queries - how long would it take? how many mangoes will grow? how sweet would they be?. I did not remember what my grandfather answered. The answer was none of my concern. Every morning I would go to see the sapling and come back disappointed that there were no mangoes. My grandfather noticed my impatience and on one fine day he explained to me that there was no magic! It would take a minimum of four to five years before I would be able to taste the fruits. Till then I needed to take adequate care, like watering the plant, saving it from animals etc. He also said, if properly nurtured this mango tree would become a lifetime asset and will even benefit future generations. I don't remember how well I understood the message then, but today while trying to understand the long term, my grandfather’s long-forgotten words seem to be more relevant.

My grandfather’s perspective on investment is diametrically opposite to how we behave as investors. More often than not, we start expecting returns from the very next day of investment. Till all of us find someone like the grandfather who appreciates our impatience and explains to us the concepts of investment, let's take a cue from Warren Buffett's 'favorite holding period' i.e. 'forever'. This explains the SEVENTH behavioral trait of an investor— be patient with returns and ready to invest forever.

If we understand and can control these seven behaviour traits, then we can take care of what Benjamin Graham describes as the more important requirement of investor success - how you behave? We will reserve some other day for discussing how your investments behave - the less important requirement in Graham's prescription.

...........

(Author - Shivam, MBA, FMS Delhli) 

The author is a Sr. VP at SBI Mutual Fund, Corporate Office, Mumbai. Respond to him at shivam.kumar@sbimf.com . You may also send your feedback to the editor at hemantdas2001@gmail.com

Fencing against Cryptocurrency

Stability of the financial sector can be potentially threatened if the private parties are allowed to toy with currencies – this is the view of RBI as well as the Central Govt as per the report published in FE on Mar 4, 2021. Let us look into the nature and working of private cryptocurrencies that have alerted government to such an extent that it thinks to introduce a bill against them.

The source code of cryptocurrencies specifies how many units can ever exist and this limitation feature makes it more and more valuable with every addition in the currency. So it has an in-built deflationary tendency vis-à-vis the government administered currencies of the world that are typically inflationary.

Bitcoin introduced in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto (a pseudonym) is the most popular cryptocurrency with a cap of maximum number being 21 million coins. He was also the first person to mine a block. Once miners (computer-tech persons) are able to complete the verification of 1 MB (megabyte) worth of bitcoin transactions they are treated as have mined a block and rewarded with a certain number of bitcoins as fixed by the cryptocurrency’s internal regulation. The miners on their success also get fees that are pre-loaded by buyers of the transactions so that their work of verification could be done on priority basis. A miner is allowed to prioritize fee-loaded transactions over the others. A blockchain is the record of all such transactions in bitcoins from beginning of it till date.

Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, Ripple are some of the popular cryptocurrencies worldwide whereas in India Bitbns, CoinSwitch, CoinDCX, BuyUCoin, Zebpay are often heard ones.

Cryptocurrencies appear to have come in existence as an informal means of money exchange or might be a product of gaming activity which because of its high level of digital security mechanism and perhaps having been able to keep itself immune to all kinds of government regulations by virtue of their untraceability gained momentum in a short span of time.

The demerit with these currencies is that they can’t be restored if one forgets the private key or codes of their coins. Black marketing is also possible through them. The fact that from origin to the end the cryptocurrencies are able to avoid regulation and taxation have made the governments alert in many counties. Their rapid spread and usage can be a threat to a country’s monetary system and so fencing measures are on.

(Author – Hemant K Das)

Disclaimer: The views expressed are personal and this article is written and published only for academic purpose. The readers are advised to follow all government rules and regulations before thinking for any transactions.

Virtues of a monster

Inflation is most often a planned phenomenon. it has several benefits and therefore it is not a total evil and is a desirable device in hand of rulers. But this device is to be dealt very delicately otherwise it will take no time in turning into a monster.

A moderate level of inflation helps a country to meet the growth targets. And this is in line with this that the RBI has expressed it’s willingness to favour the 5-year’s inflation target set in 2016.  the retail inflation in India should be kept at 4% with an upper and lower limits at 6% and 2% respectively. Though Mint (daily) had earlier hinted the govt may reset the target at 5% to help the economy recover fast.

Let us understand the virtues of this monster if kept under control. An inflation is much better than a deflation. Why? Because in case of deflation (falling price) – 1. People would prefer to wait for purchase and so the whole economy would reel under lack of demand. 2. The real biting of EMIs on the limited monthly earning of a person will get deeper with each successive month which in normal circumstances get gradually tapered off due to inflation.

You may be surprised to know that as per the Phillip Curve the rise in inflation lowers unemployment rate at least to a certain extent. This is because the employer is able to reward an efficient worker with increment in wages without any real impact on his financial burden and very tactfully he is also able to keep the under-performing worker plausibly at same level of wages (which in real term has been lowered by inflation) without any hoo-ha.  

And the icing on the cake is that the export activities are automatically encouraged as the exporters would be able to get more rupees for a dollar earned after inflation. So the debt for export work he took in rupees can be easily repaid now. 

Though if administered imprudently inflation may make the domestic economy uncompetitive on global scale as the global traders may flinch to clinch a deal with a  country with unstable or falling currency. Moreover a hard-earned saving of middle-class loses sheen with each dose of inflation as it's valued erodes away gradually. Also, a daily-wage workers bear the brunt of rising prices the most as there may be a time-lag before their wage-rise and the price rise already happened.

We believe that the RBI and other authorities are thinking for an inflation rate where it is helpful for all of us.

(Author- Hemant K Das)

SEBI’s Risk-O-Meter

SEBI’s Risk-O-Meter is definitely a huge improvement on the earlier risk grading method adopted by it for securities and debt funds. As in earlier method the whole category of fund was rated letting the each constituent of the portfolio be unnoticed. But now what is rated is not fund category but the fund

itself and that too on the basis of it’s ingredients.

The earlier rating system as adopted in 2015 were measuring on five risk levels which has now in 2021 been raised to six levels– Low, Low to Moderate, Moderate, Moderately High, High and |Very High. Now the debt fund will be rated on three parameters – Credit (on 1-12 scale), Interest rate (on 1-6 scale) and Liquidity (on 1-14 scale). Portfolio risk will be the simple average of this three. Interestingly the interest rate risk measurement will be based on Macaulay Duration which is weighted average of maturity period of each ingredient of the portfolio.

So definitely an investor would gain more insight based on deeper understanding of fund’s likely behaviour.

And last but not the least, as the fund managers may keep changing the portfolio within the categories, the rating will also change each time. So an investor is expected to keep a keen watch on the dynamic rating which happened to be static earlier.

(Author - Hemant K Das)

Synergy gain of pair endorsement

Doubling expense to the tune of ₹5-8 Crore does not necessarily mean ₹10-16 Crore. It can be significantly less. And an ad manager uses his faculty for financial analysis to rope in duo charism of Virat-Anushka or Ranveer-Deepika. Though the blazing persona of a sole celebrity is enough to create a long living throb for the ever-upscaling volume but when put in conjunction with love-partner can just be disrupting. 

And no prize for guessing, gossiping flow abound for a high-profile glamour couple. This justifies the endorsement sagas of Ranbir Kapoor-Alia Bhatt’s flipkart fashion and Lays, Ranveer Singh-Deepika Padukon’s Jio, Lloyed Air-conditioners and Virat Kohli-Anushka Sharma’s Manyavar. Though our gut instinct says that even the celebrities may also be loving to appear with their best love-partners and so might be conceding on less that the total sum of their individual endorsement fees. In her interesting article published in the latest FE Sunday, Venkata Susmita B says “A star of the stature of Kohli charges about ₹ 5-6 Crore per days as his endorsement fee and the rate for a pair could be in the range of 8-12 Crore".

Now, it can really be highly insightful to make a valuation of the synergy gain in such pair endorsements.

(Author - Hemant K Das)

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